An alliance of rebel forces has toppled Bashar Al-Assad; the so-called ‘Lion of Damascus’ has fallen and Syria is now free to leave behind the horrors of Ba’athist rule. The brutal Syrian civil war left half a million dead, drove 13 million from their homes, and unleashed over 100 torture chambers across the nation. In short, Syria has suffered.
Now in a power-vacuum there are several divided factions vying for power in the Arab republic, from the ‘moderate jihadist’ Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani, to the largely Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the politically Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.Syria is spoiled for choice, yet the country remains economically stagnant, highly nationalised and accustomed to a strong state after 61 years of Ba’ath Party control.With free elections set to be held by the interim government of Julani and HTS, the social and economic direction of a post-Assad Syria remains to be seen.
There has been much talk in the media about Julani’s ‘moderate’ credentials, given his historical involvement with Al-Qaeda and Daesh – in addition to his movement’s distinctly Islamist stance.
However, the de facto leader of Syria and Emir of HTS has recently suggested a more liberal direction for the nation. On the issue of women’s education he remarked that Syria “is not Afghanistan” and on the issue of the economy the Damascus Chamber of Commerce has reported that Syria will adopt a “free-market system based on competition”, opening the former rogue state up to business and international trade.
There’s no sign that Julani is the Syrian equivalent of Javier Milei, but there is certainly room for shock therapy within the country’s economy. The Fraser Institute’s 2023 edition of Economic Freedom of the World placed Syria in the bottom 10 countries globally, with heavily nationalised industries, excessive currency controls and a property market in dire shape.
With 67% of the country living in poverty, a significant depreciation in the value of the Syrian pound and an average CPI of 100% over the past few years, it has been estimated that the country will need between $250-400 billion just to rebuild to pre-war levels. This is more than 20 times Syria’s current nominal GDP and the costs can only be covered in two ways, foreign aid and foreign investment. The latter is the most effective but necessitates an environment that is friendly to investors.
Syria wouldn’t be the only Middle Eastern or Arab country to embrace market mechanisms and international trade, with the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar ranking 50th, 45th, and 90th respectively in the aforementioned economic freedom report. Each of these nations also possess enviable oil reserves, an industry that provided a significant contribution to Damascus pre-war and with access to the country’s East now being possible, the Deir ez-Zor oil fields could be essential in jump-starting the economy.
Syria is majority Muslim and a large portion of the Arab population remain highly socially conservative, so the chances of an Islamist or Arab nationalist government following a democratic election remain high. Yet, whilst the MENA region in the 20th century saw Ba’athism, Nasserism, and Gaddafism entwine socialism with pan-Arab and Islamic governance, this relic of the Cold War is dying out.
Islam itself is not hostile to liberal or free market principles; the Quran enshrines property rights, encourages voluntary charity and the Prophet considered the acquisition of wealth and engagement in business to be worthy pursuits. Indeed, Mohammed’s family were merchants themselves.
The existence of modern financial markets in the Gulf states is testament to this compatibility of conservative Islam with capitalism, even existing alongside autocratic, monarchical regimes with little regard for human rights. Yet Syria has the opportunity to follow a different path even to these and can look to the rest of the world for its new model. Whether embracing a strong state and social conservatism alongside democratic elections and a more open market, such as Singapore – or seeking to replicate the liberal democracies of the Syrian resistance’s allies in Europe and America.
Having experienced the realities of war, torture and forced disappearances under Assad, the Syrian people know that even a secular regime must do more to protect human rights. Additionally, many Syrians are all too familiar with life under a radical Caliphate, where religious doctrine and social conservatism led a reign of terror, slavery and mass murder. Whatever political direction the country takes, it is clear that its new constitution must be democratic and secular to allow all citizens to have a say in the direction of their reformed nation.
The Syria of the present is a people scarred, a homeland torn apart and an economy in disarray. Yet with the ousting of the iron fist of the Assad clan there is an immense opportunity for peace, unity and freedom to thrive in the region. By emulating tried and tested models of democracy, market liberalism, and secularism there is hope that Syria can achieve not just recovery – but also success. This would not only mean a Syria unoppressed, but truly a Syria unchained.
